I once heard from someone who did economic projections for a major wireless company that projecting in business is a lot like driving a car while only looking in the rear-view mirror.
Sure, you can see exactly where you came from, but you don’t exactly know what’s up ahead.
So how exactly then do you project?
Well, the more times you drive the road, the more experience you’ll gain in each turn, hill, and bump. You can anticipate just a bit better on each trip.
But undoubtedly there’s going to be stuff that comes up that you can’t see.
In that case, the only thing we can do is drive with the idea that yes, there will be things that may derail our journey temporarily.
Because the alternative is not driving at all.